Trump’s Syria-Iraq pipeline plan aims to weaken Iran’s leverage - opinion

Reuters reported that Trump handed Sharaa a personal letter during the meeting. The key passages were: “I promised to remove all barriers stopping you from rebuilding your country, and very soon you will finally be able to do so,” and “We have US companies ready to invest in Syria and help make your country greater and more prosperous than ever before.”

Speaking to the media after their meeting, Trump praised Sharaa in unusually strong terms. He’s: “doing an unbelievable job in unifying Syria….Syria was a mess…now it’s just come together … He’s done a fantastic job.” All the indications are that Trump has decided to adopt post-Assad Syria as a working partner in developing a reinvigorated Middle East.

Once again the meeting was notable for its tone. Trump repeatedly praised Zaidi and spoke of their “tremendous chemistry.” He made it clear that he regarded Iraq’s new prime minister also as a partner with whom Washington could build a stronger long-term relationship.

The discussion covered expanding economic relations between the two countries, while both sides endorsed a series of memoranda of understanding (MoU) involving US participation in Iraq’s oil and gas sector.

Zaidi reiterated his government’s intention of bringing all armed groups, including Iran-backed militias, under state control, while confirming that the remaining US forces in Iraq are expected to complete their withdrawal by September 30, 2026.

What was not specifically referred to by either party – and not mentioned either following Trump’s discussion with Sharaa – was the US-Syria-Iraq plan to revive the historic 500-mile pipeline from the oilfields of Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the town of Baniyas, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – a determined effort to reduce Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tom Barrack, Trump’s ambassador to Turkey and envoy to Syria and Iraq, had been working on the details of the agreement before Zaidi’s visit.

The pipeline was completed in 1952 by Iraq’s Petroleum Company with a capacity of around 300,000 barrels per day. Baghdad shut the pipeline in the 1980s after Syria sided with Iran during the Iran-Iraq war.

The pipeline will almost certainly have to be wholly replaced – a project calculated to last up to three years.

A glance at the map shows that reviving the pipeline would give Iraq a strategic alternative to exporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike Gulf exports, shipments through the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline would avoid the Persian Gulf altogether.

It would spare tankers the need to negotiate the strategic Hormuz choke point on both their outbound and return voyages. Oil reaching Syria’s Mediterranean coast via the pipeline could be shipped directly to European markets.

Routing Iraqi oil this way could cut a tanker’s voyage to European refineries by roughly 3,000 nautical miles and more than a week at sea, saving hundreds of thousands of dollars in normal shipping costs while avoiding the war-risk insurance and disruption associated with the Strait of Hormuz.

Although it has clearly been agreed between the parties to keep the resurrection of the historic pipeline low-key, Reuters and other media outlets indicate that the project has advanced well beyond the conceptual stage.

It is claimed that the US is officially backing restoration of the 891 km. long pipeline, and that the US expects American firms to take part in rebuilding the line. Chevron has been widely mentioned as a potential participant, although the company has declined to comment publicly.

Indeed, with Syria shorn of its sanctions and established as a fully-fledged partner, it has the potential to become a major energy transit hub. It has about 2.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, but some geological estimates suggest its undiscovered onshore and offshore petroleum resources could ultimately exceed 20 billion barrels.

In February 2026, Chevron signed a memorandum of understanding with Syria’s state-owned petroleum company and Qatar’s Power International Holding to develop the country’s first offshore oil and gas field.

Days later, Saudi and American energy companies formed a consortium to explore four or five oil and gas blocks and rebuild energy infrastructure in north-east Syria.

Finding gas is, of course, only the beginning. Syria would ultimately need to sell it. Trump’s decision to remove Syria from the US list of State Sponsors of Terrorism signals that Washington now regards Sharaa’s government as a legitimate partner.

That political endorsement encourages investors who might otherwise have stayed away, and it makes it much easier to construct pipelines, use Mediterranean export terminals, attract investment and conclude long-term gas sales contracts with foreign buyers.

Were Israel to follow Trump’s lead in considering Syria’s potential as a commercial partner, several hazards would need to be overcome. One is the strong influence that Turkey, no friend of Israel, exercises on Sharaa.

Then there is the fact that Russia has retained a significant military and commercial presence in Syria. President Vladimir Putin has preserved his strategic foothold on the eastern Mediterranean, having negotiated continued access to Russia’s naval facility at Tartus and its Khmeimim air base near Latakia.

At the same time, according to reliable media reports, a Russian commercial logistics hub is expected to become operational at Tartus very soon, handling Russian cargo and providing a maritime link between the Syrian coast and Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

Trump seems determined to enfold both Syria’s Sharaa and Iraq’s al-Zaidi into a close commercial and economic embrace. In Israel, however, both are viewed rather more cautiously. Trust cannot simply be bestowed; it will have to be earned.