“Nobody considered this a European problem,” Dr. Lynette Nusbacher, who helped develop two of the UK’s National Security Strategies as part of the National Security Secretariat and formerly headed the Strategic Horizons Unit in the UK Cabinet Office, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
Nusbacher spoke a day after Iranian officials told European media that the regime planned to strike Europe if European countries allowed the US to use their bases to attack Iran.
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian parliament’s security committee, told Euronews, "If America uses its bases in Europe, including in Italy and Germany, Iran's missiles will be fired towards Europe… In the two previous wars we did not do this, but this time we will not let Europe's assistance to America for an attack on Iran go without consequence.”
On Wednesday, the Tehran municipality-owned Hamshahri published a map of Europe on its front page, marking 15 potential targets across countries stretching from Portugal to Romania. British, German, and Italian military bases were notably among those marked, including the UK's RAF Fairford, which was reportedly targeted in an Iranian plot in recent months.
Despite acknowledging that Europe had not previously considered the prospect of a direct missile attack from Iran, Nusbacher argued that the threat of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) should not be a major concern.
“One of the most important things about Iran's ICBMs is that they haven't got any,” she said.
In March, Iran launched two long-range ballistic missiles toward the joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean located roughly 4,000 kilometers away. One missile failed during flight, while the second was intercepted by an SM-3 missile fired from a US warship after traveling beyond Iran's self-declared 2,000-kilometer range limit.
“A few months ago, Iran demonstrated that they could put a stripped-down high explosive warhead onto a theatre ballistic missile and send it most of the way to Diego Garcia Island and possibly injured some fish in the Indian Ocean,” Nusbacher explained. “People suggested at the time that if you could send a theatre ballistic missile with a high explosive warhead most of the way to Diego Garcia, you could send a theatre ballistic missile with a high explosive warhead to a target in Europe.”
“This was part of the narrative that the United States and Israel were fighting a war in Iran that was solving a European problem,” she continued. “Nobody in Europe, however, had to consider this a European problem. Nobody thought that the Iranians intended to attack European targets, particularly not NATO targets where they might provoke an Article 5 response from NATO. Nobody thought that the Iranians would be interested in damaging their relationships across Europe.”
Although Iran may not possess ICBMs, a missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers could still reach parts of southeastern Europe, including Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania.
Fada Hossein Maleki, another member of the Iranian parliament's security committee, told Euronews that Iran had prepared a new approach and scenario for any renewed conflict that would surprise both the US and European countries.
“We were not worried about the Iranians crossing the nuclear threshold; we were not worried about the Iranian attacking us with ballistic missiles. At this point, the only reason we must view Iranian ballistic missiles as a threat is that they might shoot them at American bases in European countries, and miss,” Nusbacher said.
Cyberattacks across Europe
Alongside the missile threats, Europe has faced a number of cyberattacks in recent weeks.
An attack disrupted refrigerators in Belgian branches of Carrefour, Intermarché, and Ikea, as well as Coop and ICA in Sweden, Delhaize in Luxembourg, Kesko in Finland, SuperValu in Ireland, and shops in Estonia. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incidents.
Notably, the attacks came after more than 30 countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, issued a joint statement condemning Iran's activities across Europe and beyond. The countries pledged to "condemn in the strongest terms Iran's use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities against us and our partners."
Nusbacher insisted that while Europeans had already been aware of the threat posed by Iranian subversion and the violence it sponsors, it must now take into account “the threat of Iranian ballistic missile attack, because European states are to a greater or lesser extent supporting operations against Iran and Russia.”
“However, I think we do a good job in Europe of putting that risk into perspective,” she said.
EU urges 72-hour preparedness
In response to growing concerns about the threat of complex crises, the European Civil Protection Forum and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib presented new guidelines earlier this week urging citizens to prepare for the first 72 hours of an emergency.
The guidelines recommend that households prepare emergency kits containing:
- Three liters of drinking water per person, per day.
- Non-perishable food requiring little or no cooking.
- A manual can opener and basic eating utensils.
- A battery-powered or hand-crank FM/AM radio.
- A flashlight or torch, with spare batteries.
- A fully charged external power bank and mobile phone charger.
- A printed list of emergency numbers, family contacts, and utility providers.
- A first-aid kit containing basic medical supplies, including bandages.
- A three-day supply of essential prescription medications.
- Wet wipes, hand sanitizer, toilet paper, and feminine hygiene or baby products.
- Cash, identification documents, and spare keys.
- A thermal blanket, sleeping bag, and warm clothing.
Lahbib also announced plans to establish an annual EU Preparedness Day, with the first edition scheduled for October 2027.
The initiatives build on a recently adopted European Commission recommendation on operational continuity and stress-testing, aimed at strengthening the resilience of national civil protection contact points across Europe.
“When disaster strikes, the first hours can make all the difference. Every European should know what to do, how to protect their family, and how to help others. Preparedness starts in our homes, in our schools, in our communities. That is why we are giving people practical tools to prepare for crises, while strengthening the systems they rely on when emergencies hit,” Lahbib said.