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In the latest episode of the Defense and Tech podcast, Dr. Lauren Dagan Amoss, a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center, outlined how New Delhi positioned itself just days before the conflict erupted, and how the war is reshaping its strategic calculations.
Just prior to the escalation, India was maintaining what Dagan Amoss described as a “delicate balance” between three critical partners. Iran remained important for regional connectivity, particularly through projects such as the Chabahar port and access to Central Asia. Israel was a key defense and technology partner. Meanwhile, the Gulf states, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, were central to India’s energy security, trade, and the welfare of millions of Indian nationals living in the region.
However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in early 2026 signaled a shift. According to Dagan Amoss, India began elevating Israel from a defense supplier to a broader strategic partner, even before the war began.
That shift did not mean abandoning ties with Iran or the Gulf. But it did indicate that India’s long-standing balancing strategy was already under strain.
Once the war broke out, New Delhi’s response was cautious and measured. Rather than taking a clear public side, India focused on de-escalation, protecting its citizens, and safeguarding its economic interests. This approach reflects a consistent pattern in Indian foreign policy: avoiding rigid alignment while preserving flexibility.
The stakes are high. More than 75% of India’s oil imports come from the Gulf, and millions of Indian citizens live and work across the region. Any prolonged instability threatens not only energy supplies but also economic stability and diaspora security.
Dagan Amoss noted that India no longer imports oil from Iran due to sanctions, further increasing its reliance on Gulf partners. As a result, tensions with Iran make India’s position even more complex.
At the same time, the war is likely to deepen India’s defense ties with Israel. As in previous conflicts, Indian policymakers and military planners are closely watching operational developments, seeking lessons that could shape future procurement and strategy.
“India does not view the war primarily as a moral contest,” Dagan Amoss said. “It sees it as a strategic crisis to be managed.”
That mindset may define India’s role in the months ahead. As regional dynamics evolve, New Delhi’s ability to maintain its balancing act will be increasingly challenged, forcing it to make harder choices in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.