Israel’s upcoming election season could become its ugliest yet - opinion

Here is a prediction: when the election campaign really moves into high gear, expect to see a Likud advertisement claiming that it was the party that protected and supported IDF soldiers by refusing to pass the ultra-Orthodox draft law that the haredi parties demanded.

Think about that for a moment. Just a short while ago, it was supposedly the best law imaginable. Now, it will be portrayed as dangerous and unacceptable.

The substance did not change. What changed is the political calculation. Elections are approaching, narratives are shifting, and everyone is racing to reposition themselves before the public heads to the polls.

That is what election season in Israel has become. Little is genuine, and almost nothing can be taken at face value. Statements are not designed to reflect reality but, unfortunately, to manipulate it.

There was, for example, Netanyahu, who, during one campaign, vowed there would never be a Palestinian state, only to later tell international audiences he remained committed to a diplomatic process. There was Naftali Bennett, who signed a pledge on TV promising not to sit with Yair Lapid or with an Arab party, before ultimately building exactly that coalition after the election.

Israeli politics has always involved breaking promises, but this election feels different. It is shaping up to be a volatile mixture of the good, the bad, and the ugly.

The good is that Israel is finally heading to elections. Whether one supports Netanyahu or opposes him, whether one believes this coalition saved the country or damaged it, it is healthy and necessary for the people to speak after what Israel has endured over the past almost three years.

At some point, the public deserves a say. Democracies cannot indefinitely avoid political accountability. In fact, difficult moments are precisely when accountability matters most.

Does that necessarily mean the current government will be replaced? No.

The polls today may show difficulty on both sides in forming a coalition. Netanyahu and his bloc may still emerge victorious, and if that happens, despite the anger over October 7, it will still be completely legitimate. Millions of Israelis may dislike it, but they will have to accept it, because that is how democracy works.

And yet, because so much is at stake, this campaign is almost guaranteed to become extraordinarily bad and ugly.

For Netanyahu personally, this election is not merely another race. It is about survival – and not just political. Netanyahu has long understood that the strongest position from which to battle the criminal charges against him is the Prime Minister’s Office. He learned that from former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who resigned before an indictment was even filed and ultimately ended up in prison.

At the same time, the opposition views this election as perhaps its last and best opportunity to unseat Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. For many in the anti-Netanyahu camp, this is no longer simply about policy disagreements. It is about the future identity of the state, the character of Israeli democracy, and the possibility of national rehabilitation after years of division.

When both sides view the election in such existential terms, restraint disappears.

We are already seeing signs of an absence of red lines. The AI-generated videos circulated recently by Likud portraying Bennett and Lapid as Arabs are deeply disturbing. Beyond their ugliness, they send a terrible message to 20% of Israel’s citizens who are Arab.

Reducing Arab identity to a political smear does not merely attack Bennett or Lapid. It damages the delicate social fabric Israel has spent decades trying to build. But in an election season, as we have learned, social cohesion becomes expendable since winning is now everything.

While the opposition may not yet be producing the same style of AI propaganda, warning signs are already emerging there, too. Just listen to statements by  The Democrats party leader, Yair Golan, who recently suggested that if his bloc takes power, Channel 14 will be shut down.

You do not have to like Channel 14 – many Israelis find it toxic and intellectually shallow. But closing down a media outlet because you oppose its politics is profoundly anti-democratic. Governments are not supposed to silence media organizations because they support the “wrong” side. The irony of someone presenting himself as a defender of democracy while proposing such a move should not be ignored.

This is the danger facing Israel right now. Both camps increasingly see the other not merely as political rivals but as existential threats. Once politics becomes existential, almost any tactic can be justified.

So what can we, the regular Israelis, do?

First, we need to recognize that these elections will be deeply emotional. October 7 shattered the country in ways Israelis are still struggling to process.

Second, Israel remains at war. Soldiers are still fighting. Reservists are still being called up. Northern communities are still under fire. This is not a normal election conducted during peacetime.

Third, the country remains profoundly divided over fundamental questions: the future of Gaza, the role of the judiciary, religion and state, the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft issue, and Israel’s broader strategic direction. None of these fronts is close to resolution.

That leaves Israelis with a choice not only about who to vote for. but also about what kind of election campaign they are willing to tolerate.

Every citizen should ask two simple questions: What do I want this campaign to look like? And what rhetoric am I unwilling to accept, even from politicians I support?

The media will continue amplifying the extreme because that is what generates clicks. Social media will continue promoting the most radical because that is what drives engagement. And politicians will continue testing boundaries because they have learned that fear mobilizes voters.

But that does not mean the public has to follow all the above into the gutter.

Israelis should demand that their leaders be honest and that if a politician signs a pledge, they should stand by it. If they commit to voters, they should honor it. And if they break that promise, there should be a political price.

Too often in Israeli politics, voters simply shrug and move on. But that dismisses the notion of accountability, an integral piece of any democratic society.

In the end, Israelis will survive this election. But the real question remains unanswered: What kind of society will be here once it is over?

If we allow the campaign to be just about fear, incitement, and vengeance, then we will achieve very little, no matter who forms the next government.