We are living with multi-pronged and multi-layered fighting in the Middle East. There is the straightforward military conflict that is multi-faceted, featuring overwhelming military might against asymmetrical fighting that seems more like terrorism than warfare.
There is also the jockeying of diplomacy, in which each side portrays its goals and motivations in ways that seem completely unknown and totally unacceptable to the other.
And then there is the war for the hearts and minds of the citizens of the enemy’s country, often filtered through their surrounding news media.
Iran’s mullahs and IRGC leaders well understand the importance of this last war, because they have correctly deduced that the continued willingness of their enemies to prosecute a military war depends on public support.
Quite simply, the more that the public decides that the war effort is not going well, the more likely that there will be increased pressure for it to end. Therefore, the war for the hearts and minds of Western citizens, Americans in particular, is of paramount importance to Iran and its proxies.
This particular war takes several forms: blatant disinformation; the reinterpretation of actions that are admitted to have taken place; and the assessment of how the war is progressing and being felt at the enemies’ home front.
This last form of dissemination can seem to be surreal, especially when it is tied to positions concerning diplomatic negotiations.
So, when Iran is claiming that they are winning victory after victory, and that the price for ending the conflict will have to be a long list of conditions that amount to the mortification and humbling of America and Israel, it is tempting to laugh out loud.
Iran believes its winning
Except that on a real level it is not just fabrication and spin – they really believe it.
It is a mistake to see this as just psy-ops or an attempt to influence Western opinion. Nor is it just posturing either to try to improve a negotiating position, or to help the regime’s standing with its own people.
The Western sensibility sees all of this as having ulterior motives. Worse yet, many in the West come around to believing in the “truth” of what the Iranians are saying.
But the most frightening reality is that the Iranian regime, like Hamas and Hezbollah, actually does think they are winning, or have even actually won.
That is because their definition of victory is profoundly different from ours. For the Islamist enemy, the numbers don’t matter; and the relative assessment of damage caused versus damage incurred doesn’t matter. Even the number of people killed or injured on their side – fighters and civilians – doesn’t really matter.
What matters is continuity and survival. There can be no Western victory if a group of true believers can still hold up their rifles and shout “Allahu akbar.”
The interesting reality is that there is a great projection taking place. The Iranian regime’s goal is the obliteration of both the Great and the Little Satans – the US and Israel. Anything less than that is a victory in progress.
The mullahs and their IRGC henchmen then project onto the West that our real objective must actually mirror their own: their own annihilation. They might not couch it in those terms, but it is increasingly clear that all of this is an existential battle in the name of the ultimate victory of Islam and the arrival of the 12th Imam. Call it Muslim messianism.
With such a mindset, not to be obliterated is to be sustained. It has allowed the Islamists to thwart what they intuit and assume are the eliminationist goals of their enemies. This thwarting is victory, pure. and simple.
Islamists are playing a long game whereby, as long as they are still in the game, so to speak, they are still on their way to ultimate victory. Short-term defeats are just setbacks and are to be expected.
It is the long game that matters. Therefore, calls for the Iranian regime to surrender are anathema, because that would constitute an abandonment of their long term eliminationist goal. While surrender is not their own obliteration, it represents breaking faith with their mission, and that they will not do.
The decision by US President Donald Trump to blockade the blockaders of the Strait of Hormuz was a brilliant tactical end run around the Iranians. In like fashion, I believe the most likely chance for strategic success with Iran will come from another end run around: empowering the citizens of Iran to rise up and overthrow their regime.
With the overthrow of the regime, the genocidal and eliminationist objectives of the mullahs are mooted: they will no longer control the arms and the means of destruction. The great eliminationist quest against the West will be sidelined.
Any negotiated deal with the regime is just kicking the can down the ultimate endgame road, an outcome the intact regime is happy to accept.
For those paying attention, the war with Iran has been an eye-opening experience into the mindset of people with a profoundly different set of values and priorities than our own. To successfully confront them, we need to fully understand their theocratic thinking, beliefs, and goals.
Our job is not to change any of that, as that is impossible. Our job is to recognize what drives the Iranians, and to figure out how we can work around it, to achieve the lasting victory we seek.
The writer is the chairman of the Board of Im Tirtzu and a director of the Israel Independence Fund.