Israeli analytical center Dor Moriah has published the first stage of its new research initiative, Visions of Israel’s Future – 2030, presenting findings from an expert survey that paints a deeply divided picture of the country’s political, social, and institutional trajectory ahead of the October 2026 elections.
The project, designed to examine where Israel may be headed by the end of the next Knesset term, consists of two sequential studies. The newly released first phase surveyed 12 Israeli specialists in politics, economics, security, law, media, and civil society. The second phase, now underway in cooperation with the Geocartography Sociological Center, will measure how broadly those elite perspectives are reflected among the general public.
According to Dor Moriah researchers, the timing of the study is deliberate. October’s parliamentary election is being framed not as a routine political contest, but as a vote likely to shape the country’s path through the end of the decade.
“The Knesset elected this fall will determine much of Israel’s direction through 2030,” the report states. “What kind of country Israel will be when that term ends is no longer a rhetorical question.”
A country transformed since the October 7 massacre
The report argues that Israel has entered a new era since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the war that followed. Long-standing internal tensions, it says, were intensified rather than resolved by the national crisis.
Researchers note that political polarization had already escalated during the judicial reform battle that divided Israeli society in 2023. The war, rather than healing those divisions, exposed what the report calls “internal contradictions that had previously been managed – or simply ignored.”
Another major trend highlighted in the study is outward migration. Once politically sensitive and rarely discussed openly, emigration has become a measurable social phenomenon, the report says.
Citing figures from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, Dor Moriah notes that an average of 76,000 citizens left the country annually in 2024 and 2025 – roughly double the level recorded five years earlier. Over the same period, immigration to Israel reportedly fell by threefold.
Those demographic changes, researchers suggest, could have long-term political consequences beyond the immediate electoral cycle.
Inside the expert survey
The first phase of the project was conducted in late March and early April 2026. Twelve experts participated, including political scientists, a historian, an economist, a sociologist, security analysts, a lawyer, a journalist, a human rights advocate, and a civic activist.
Participants represented a wide ideological spectrum, from the political left to the religious right. Each was asked the same series of questions on domestic politics, geopolitical strategy, economic development, and Israel’s institutional future.
Dor Moriah emphasized that the study was not intended as a representative poll or prediction model. Instead, its purpose was to map the competing frameworks through which influential Israelis understand the country’s future.
“Our objective was to understand which visions of the future actually shape thinking within Israel’s expert community,” the report said, “where those visions converge, and where they diverge irreconcilably.”
Experts see different countries
The report’s central conclusion is stark: many Israeli experts appear to be describing fundamentally different versions of the same country.
According to researchers, respondents often agreed on the facts of current events but interpreted them through entirely different ideological and moral frameworks.
A secular political scientist, for example, might describe present challenges as the “erosion of the social contract,” while a religious security analyst might frame the same developments as a “loss of national direction.”
Both positions, the study says, are internally coherent – but they rely on different assumptions about authority, legitimacy, identity, and truth.
This fragmentation goes beyond normal partisan disagreement, researchers argue. It reflects a deeper weakening of shared civic language and common national purpose.
Areas of consensus remain
Despite the divisions, the survey identified several points of broad agreement across ideological lines.
Most participants viewed Israel’s dependence on the United States as an unavoidable strategic reality. At the same time, the idea of a fully “multi-vector” foreign policy, balancing multiple global powers, was widely regarded as unrealistic.
Experts also broadly agreed that the country’s brain drain – particularly among educated professionals and younger skilled workers – poses a serious long-term threat.
“These areas of agreement matter,” the report notes. “They mark the ground that Israel still shares.”
Demography as destiny?
Perhaps the study’s most consequential warning concerns the relationship between ideology and migration.
Researchers found that the social groups most associated with a secular-liberal vision of Israel’s future are also those most likely to consider leaving the country. Those groups often form the core of Israel’s highly educated professional class, including sectors linked to universities, medicine, law, and high technology.
If that trend continues, Dor Moriah argues, the balance within key national institutions could gradually shift.
Bodies that currently function as moderating forces – including the High Court, the military, academia, and the tech sector – may change not mainly through legislation or political confrontation, but through demographic replacement as one segment of society exits and another expands.
Why October 2026 matters
The report concludes that the upcoming election is not merely a contest between parties or coalitions, but between competing national futures.
As Israelis prepare to vote, the second stage of the project will seek to determine how deeply these elite visions resonate among ordinary citizens and which communities are most aligned with them.
Together, the two studies aim to answer what Dor Moriah describes as the defining question of the decade: whether Israel still possesses a social contract strong enough to sustain itself as a single political project through 2030.
With six months until the election, that question may soon move from academic debate to political reality.
The writer is a senior researcher at the Dor Moriah Policy Institute, a blogger, and a sports journalist at the “Israel Sport” website.