An extended blockade at the Strait of Hormuz is currently the best option to bar Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, former Mossad director David Barnea said this week in New York.
There is value in attacking Iran for a third time, as these attacks could substantially contribute to the regime’s eventual fall, he said. Nevertheless, another attack would harm the global economy and is unlikely to end Iran’s nuclear threat, he added.
Barnea remains opposed to any deal with Iran other than one that completely thwarts its nuclear program. He believes Iran would never comply with such a deal and is skeptical that diplomacy can solve the issue.
Barnea’s nuanced stance differs from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pressed for a third war against Iran. His perspective also differs from US President Donald Trump, who has shown openness toward a partial nuclear deal with Iran.
Describing why an extended blockade could be more useful than either a deal or a war, Barnea said: “The regime will have a hard time surviving if its economy is falling apart and without income from oil exports.”
“The Iranian people have proven they have noble courage,” he said, adding that millions of Iranians are waiting to seize their freedom from the regime. Nevertheless, “this option requires endurance, patience, and determination,” he added.
“War is a very highly effective option,” Barnea said, adding that it would lead to “massive consequences that would shake up the global energy market and economy.”
A military attack “would lead to a faster collapse of the regime, which is already fighting for its survival,” he said.
Chance of making deal Iran would respect is low, Barnea says
Regarding a deal with Iran, Barnea said: “An agreement with the terrorist regime, a regime whose entire aspiration is to develop nuclear weapons to completely destroy us, a terrorist regime that slaughtered thousands of its own people – a deal with Iran will be perceived as a prize for its [current] strategy, a strategy of destruction and terrorism. Such a deal would be a gift of immunity and permanent stability.”
“The chances of obtaining an agreement that the regime would respect, and which would ensure zero nuclear capabilities, is low in my view,” he said.
“In any deal, Iran will continue to try to acquire a nuclear weapon in the long term,” Barnea said.
“The president of the United States paid a huge political price for doing the right thing,” he said, adding that “doing the right thing is not always the popular choice.”
Barnea spoke about his involvement in the pager explosions that targeted Hezbollah operatives and the operation to assassinate former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.