Five things to watch amid the ceasefire with Iran

Iran believes it was deceived in the talks in February and last June, and that the talks were used to give the US time to prepare airstrikes. Iran doesn’t believe the US engaged in good faith.

The US also seems to feel the same way about Iran.

As such, it’s worth looking at several key issues that will remain hot topics and crisis points as the ceasefire begins.

Lebanon is a key frontline for Israel. After Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel on March 2, the IDF launched a major offensive in Lebanon. This has included airstrikes and calls for Lebanese to evacuate a swath of southern Lebanon.

This has displaced more than one million people. Israel has bombed the bridges over the Litani River, claiming they were used by Hezbollah. This will also prevent most of the people from returning to southern Lebanon. The IDF has inched forward as well, taking over areas close to the Israeli border with Lebanon. It is not clear if the IDF wants to actually take over most of the area south of the Litani, or turn it into a kind of no-man’s land.

Hezbollah will want Iran to help it secure a ceasefire in Lebanon. As such, it is likely that Iran will feel pressured in its talks with the US to bring Lebanon into the mix.

Lebanon’s government will also want a ceasefire. However, messaging from Israel regarding the offensive in southern Lebanon paints a picture that this is only the beginning of a conflict in Lebanon that will turn southern Lebanon into a replay of what happened in Gaza, essentially moving the civilians many miles north and razing many villages along the border.

The theory in Jerusalem is that after October 7, Israel won’t accept the borders as they were in the past. This offensive “defense” means moving into Gaza and Lebanon for the foreseeable future. It’s unclear if Israel will accept Lebanon being included in any ceasefire deal. If it doesn’t, this will lead to questions about what Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies may do in response.

Iran has inflamed Iraq throughout the war that began with Israeli and US airstrikes on February 28. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have carried out around 800 drone and missile attacks in Iraq. It appears that although the militias are signaling they will join the ceasefire, there have still been incidents in Iraq.

The Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq was impacted the most, with some 600-700 drone and missile attacks. US facilities, including the embassy and a diplomatic support post at Baghdad Airport, were also major targets of the militias.

Iran showed during the war that it controls most of Iraq. The militias are paid by the government as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, but they work on behalf of Iran. They also kidnapped an American journalist, Shelly Kittelson. She was released late on April 7.

It’s unclear if this was part of the ceasefire deal. Prior to her release, the kidnappers, likely from a militia called Kataib Hezbollah, released a video they forced her to make. The militias are emboldened. Iraq still lacks a new prime minister, despite elections in November 2025. As such, Iraq will remain in play during the ceasefire.

The US vice-president has been a key figure throughout the Iran war. He has been key mostly for not being involved. He is seen as a member of the administration who may have been skeptical of this policy shift. The Trump doctrine, prior to the war with Iran, was skeptical of new wars in the Middle East. Vance is also likely skeptical of new foreign wars.

“If the Iranians don't engage in good faith, they're going to find out that President Trump is not one to mess around,” Vance said after the ceasefire deal was announced. He is in Budapest, where Victor Orban is seeking to win new elections and cement almost two decades in power.

Vance was tapped to play a role, likely because the other countries involved appear to trust him. Reports from Al-Ain media in the UAE say that on Monday, American envoy Steve Witkoff continued making intensive phone calls. “Then began a busy day of adjustments, as Pakistani mediators passed new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, while the foreign ministers of Egypt and Turkey sought to narrow the gap,” Al-Ain says.

Vance will be key to what happens in the next two weeks. The countries that want the deal to continue will hope he remains involved.

In the US and Israel, there will be increased focus on the war. Were the goals achieved? What were the goals? It is still unclear what the precise goal of the war was. The nuclear file and ballistic missiles were among the stated goals. However, US officials have also talked about destroying the Iranian navy and air force as a goal, and Israel and the US have also focused on destroying Iranian infrastructure and its military industrial complex.

It is not clear how many of the strikes were able to complete all these goals. Iran still has missiles and has shown it can launch them, and also drones throughout the war. There will be questions in Israel and the US, among the public, about what the war accomplished. Israel is likely to hold an election in the fall, and the US has midterms.

This Iran war may have ended in time to avoid overshadowing those elections too much. However, energy prices and other aftereffects will continue. Domestic political pressure may change US President Trump’s perception of whether this was a good war to engage in. Reports at The New York Times continue to paint a picture of Israel encouraging this war, and also have overly rosy assessments of the chance for regime change.

Meanwhile, in the US, there is anger over Trump’s threats to destroy Iran and its civilization. The comments about bombing it to the Stone Age and making its civilization “die” are not the usual rhetoric of American leaders in wartime. “No President in control of his senses would publicly promise to eradicate an entire civilization,” US Senator Chris Murphy said.

Iran has floated a 10-point proposal, which the United States received from Tehran over the last several days. US mediators appear to think this is not workable, and that is why the ceasefire remains fragile. It’s unclear if Iran will agree to the US demands regarding its nuclear program or missiles. It’s unclear if Iran feels it won or lost the war. Its control over the Straits of Hormuz makes Iran feel emboldened.

It successfully shifted the war from one that may have been more narrowly tailored by the US and Israel to one that inflamed the whole region. The next two weeks will need to be focused on whether the US or Iran is merely playing for time until a new round of conflict. Most countries in the region want this war to end and not be dragged back in.