The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are between a “rock and a hard place,” the UAE-based Al-Ain media reported on Monday.
The report says that during the war with Iran the Houthis continue to wait and see what will happen. They are “monitoring developments.” This puts them in a complex situation.
Iran helped the Houthis for more than a decade, arming them with the know-how to build drones and ballistic missiles. Now, will the Houthis help their friends in Tehran? Are they waiting for the new Supreme Leader to give the order?
Houthis 'closely monitoring' Iran war developments
Al-Ain says that “the Houthis in Yemen are closely monitoring developments in the war in Iran, fearing a decline in military and financial support from Tehran, but also potential US strikes on their positions.” This is an important point. Al-Ain was able to speak to analysts in Yemen and get a sense of what is going on.
“Yemeni analysts predicted that the war in Iran would have a significant impact on the Houthis, likely weakening their military capabilities and politically isolating them, in addition to potential economic repercussions for the group. In direct response to regional developments, the Houthis initiated extensive movements in the areas under their control, including evacuating sites and facilities, deploying weapons, and fortifying themselves in tunnels, fearing a possible US-Israeli attack.”
It should be recalled that back in December there was a controversy in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the UAE’s backing of the Southern Transitional Council in Aden. That has now been put on the back burner. In January and February the Houthis reinforced some of their frontlines according to previous reports.
Al-Ain noted that “regarding the current situation, military expert Brigadier General Abdul Samad Al-Majzafi said that the war in Iran has a very significant impact on the future of the Yemeni crisis, stressing that there are effects on the Houthi militias at the military, political and economic levels.”
The general said that “from a military standpoint, Iranian supplies to the Houthi militias of technology, modern weapons, drone components and sensitive equipment will decrease as a result of the strikes that targeted Tehran’s military capabilities.” He went on to say that “this will limit the Houthi militias' ability to use modern technology to target ships, threaten neighboring countries, or even in the internal battle with the legitimate government forces."
Weaking of Iran's axis has ramifications for Houthis
What else is going on? The weakening of the Iranian-backed “axis of resistance” now has ramifications for the Houthis. They could become isolated. They are even reported to be “reeling after the fall of the Iranian Supreme Leader, and are trying to rally the Yemeni public to stage demonstrations to suggest that they are capable of doing something.”
Next comes the economy. “On the economic level, the Yemeni expert expects Iranian support for the Houthis to be greatly reduced, because Tehran used to provide them with support in the form of oil derivatives, and during the next stage the support will decrease and will lead to an exacerbation of the financial and economic crisis.”
The Houthis could still enter the war.
One analyst told Al-Ain that they might enter the conflict. “Recent field data reveals unprecedented Houthi preparations.” An analyst said that "the Houthi movements reflect a reorganization of military capabilities, suggesting that the group is preparing for possible escalation scenarios after its supply source in Tehran was cut off." The timing and nature of the intervention are not clear yet.
The article also predicted that the Houthis could be subjected to pre-emptive strikes if surveillance shows they are preparing to enter the war.