The United States urged Egypt’s military to move swiftly on plans to transfer full power to an elected civilian government and suggested that failure to do so would prompt a review of US-Egypt ties—which includes billions of dollars in military and civilian aid.This step from the US administration could actually make things worse for the Egyptian people and could hamper US interests in the region. These interests include keeping the peace treaty with Israel, cooperation in counter terrorism efforts, smooth transport in the Suez Canal, assistance in possible military operations against Iran, and respect for human rights.US pressure on the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), increases the chances that an Islamist regime such as the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) could control all the affairs of the country. And there is no question that an Islamist’s government will be against the aforementioned US interests.First, it is very unlikely that the MB, an organization that avoids mentioning the name “Israel’ on its website and organizes huge celebrations to promise the Egyptian people that the MB presidential candidate will declare war on Israel, will respect any peace treaty with Israel. Second, it is also very unlikely that the MB that praises Saiid Qutb – who inspired Ayman Alzawherri with his ideas of violent jihad— will cooperate with the US in counter terrorism efforts against their fellow ‘Muslim brothers’ in radical Islamic groups.Third, allowing an Islamist regime to have control over the Suez Canal will give a global Islamic movement such as the MB more ability to manipulate world politics and US decisions.Fourth, unlike SCAF, the MB will never cooperate with the US when it comes to launching military actions against another Muslim country like Iran. In this case, relying on a Shi'ite Sunni divide is a very primitive way of thinking; Muslims, irrespective of their sects, unite once one of them attacks a Non-Muslim enemy. Iranian support (Shi'ite) for the Hamas group (Sunni) against Israel is just one example that illustrates this phenomenon.Fifth, regarding human rights, it is important to realize that one of the earliest laws discussed by the Islamist Parliament in Egypt was banning public demonstrations, permitting female genital mutilation, and no longer punishing men for sexual harassment against women. The aim of this last law was to force women to wear the hijab in order to avoid sexual harassment. This allows the MB to say they did not issue a law forcing women to wear the hijab, while at the same time "indirectly" achieving their goal of making women wear it. This illustrates the very sly, insidious methods the MB uses to deceive and oppress others. Are these the kinds of people the US wants controlling power in Egypt? The US pressure on SCAF is actually turning many Egyptians against the US. At least 50 percent of those who chose Shafik (the former member of Mubarak regime) and most of those who stayed at home will probably be against the MB’s Islamist agenda. Delivering full power to the MB will be against the will and aspirations of most Egyptian people and will ruin the relationship between the US and SCAF — one of the US’ few allies in the region. Now, this does not mean that SCAF is perfect. However, for Egypt to develop stability and honor its international commitments, SCAF must attain a share of the political power. Additionally, the election trends of the Egyptian people since the post-revolution election of parliament until the latest presidential race clearly showed that Islamists are losing public support. This was partially due to a wave of reform that that resisted the Islamists and their Sharia agenda. Yet, this initial wave of reform will likely be aborted if the secular military completely loses its power to an Islamic regime.Violence will probably follow the release of the final results of the Egyptian presidential race. If Shafik won, the Islamists are likely to react violently and in response, the military- may use force to suppress them. Alternatively, if the MB candidate wins , the Islamists will demand that the military delivers all powers to the MB. However, the military will not peacefully oblige the requests of the MB. The Egyptian military feels that they contributed to the revolution by removing Mubarak and deserve a share in power. They also realize that they are supported by at least 50 percent of the Egyptians who are quickly turning against Islamists. Therefore, if the MB wins the Egyptian presidency, the military will likely initiate a violent crackdown against the Islamists. Interfering in Egypt’s polices at this stage should be limited to general statements encouraging respect of law and peaceful co-existence.The writer is an Islamic thinker and reformer, and one-time Islamic extremist from Egypt. He was a member of a terrorist Islamic organization JI with Dr. Ayman Al-Zawaherri, who later became the second in command of al-Qaida. He is currently a senior fellow and chairman of the study of Islamic radicalism at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
Muslim Brotherhood supporters attend a rally 311 (R)(photo credit: REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El-Ghany)