US President Donald Trump is looking to secure the Western Hemisphere by replacing regime leaders with US-allied governments, the interim director of the Cuban Research Institute, Sebastian A. Arcos, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
“After Venezuela and Cuba, he will move against Nicaragua, which is the third problematic country in the hemisphere,” Arcos predicted, saying that Trump would look to "fix" governments that make the US weaker.
A key point of Trump’s second term has been a sort of revival of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. The president has asserted that the Western Hemisphere is the exclusive “backyard” of the United States, and has named his new policy the “Donroe" Doctrine.
While the Monroe Doctrine was created to protect newly independent Latin American nations from European colonization, Trump’s policy is rooted in establishing US dominance throughout the Western Hemisphere, with a focus on curbing Chinese and Russian influence, punishing political rivals, and rewarding those who ally themselves with his policies.
“Trump wants a pro-American regime in Cuba - one that cooperates with the US and denies any foothold to the Chinese or the Russians,” explained Yaki Dayan, an expert on US affairs and the former Israeli consul in Los Angeles.
“It’s a message to the rest of Latin America: the US is back in charge of its sphere of influence.”
Experts have suggested that on the ground in Cuba, public sentiment has shifted irrevocably against the Communist Party. According to Arcos, the regime is currently facing an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy.
“The vast majority of Cubans - we’re talking about possibly 90% - want regime change as soon as possible,” he explained.
“They want to return to democracy. They cannot take any more of this totalitarian regime. That is very clear.”
Current crisis worse than 1990s
Dr. Mauricio Dimant, a Latin American expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, noted that the current crisis is worse than the “Special Period” following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
Havana, once a vibrant city, now spends much of its time in total darkness. Ten million citizens across the country are grappling with power outages that have crippled everything from hospitals to water pumps.
“The economic situation is dire; it has deteriorated to a level not seen in decades. They lack the resources - the oil, the money, and the global patrons - to buy their way out of this hole. They don’t even have the bargaining chips that Venezuela has,” Dimant said.
Earlier this week, Trump escalated his rhetoric Trump escalated his rhetoric, saying he expected to have the "honor" of "taking Cuba in some form."
"I mean, whether I free it, take it. Think I can do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth," Trump told reporters at a signing event in the Oval Office, even as Cuba and the United States have opened talks aimed at improving relations.
“Within the current administration of Miguel Díaz-Canel, there are players open to dialogue,” Dr. Dimant said. “They understand that the revolutionary model is dead. The question is how to exit without a bloodbath.”
The possibility of a negotiated transition - one that might involve the Castros relinquishing political control in exchange for safety or a role in a restructured economy - is a tantalizing prospect for Washington. It would allow Trump to claim a historic victory over communism without firing a single shot.
Shir Perets contributed to this report.